The JJ Wetherholt Extension: A Strategic Move
The St. Louis Cardinals have made a bold move by extending JJ Wetherholt, a young superstar, to an 8-year deal worth a base of $112.5 million, with potential incentives reaching $132 million. This contract, while seemingly reasonable, has raised some eyebrows due to the current MLB payment structure.
Understanding the MLB Payment Structure
Personally, I find it intriguing how the MLB's payment structure influences contract negotiations. Wetherholt's deal, despite appearing low, is a strategic move by the Cardinals, considering the impending CBA negotiations. The uncertainty surrounding the new CBA makes locking in a player like Wetherholt a wise decision.
The CBA Factor
The upcoming CBA negotiations add an exciting twist to this contract. If the payment structure changes, the Cardinals have secured Wetherholt's services, eliminating future uncertainties. The true value of this contract lies in his performance during the free agent years, which could be four instead of three, depending on the new CBA.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Let's delve into the financial details. Wetherholt's salary for 2027 and 2028 is set at $800,000, with potential bonuses. His first year of arbitration in 2029 is where things get interesting. Comparing him to players like Nico Hoerner and Brice Turang, we can estimate his arbitration salary. Turang's Super Two season earnings of $4.15 million provide a good reference point.
Using historical data, we can speculate that Wetherholt's first arbitration year could be around $7-8 million. This estimate considers his defensive prowess and potential Gold Glove awards. His subsequent arbitration years would see a significant increase, making the extension a strategic move to secure his services at a relatively lower cost.
The Next Extensions
Now, let's shift our focus to the future. The Cardinals' comments about extending more players are intriguing. Jordan Walker, a breakout star, is a likely candidate for an extension. However, his late breakout and the uncertainty of his long-term performance make it a risky proposition for both parties.
Masyn Winn, on the other hand, is an ideal candidate for an extension. His elite defense and potential for offensive growth make him a valuable asset. Extending Winn ensures the Cardinals maintain their strong defense, and if his bat improves, they could have an MVP-caliber player.
The Battle for First Base
The situation with Ivan Herrera and Alec Burleson is fascinating. Extending Herrera suggests a plan to transition him to first base, which could lead to Burleson's departure. This strategic move ensures flexibility in the lineup.
Unlikely but Intriguing Candidates
Lars Nootbaar, despite trade rumors, could be a cost-effective extension candidate. Joshua Baez, a highly-touted prospect, is an unlikely choice due to his lack of MLB experience. Liam Doyle, a pitching prospect, is also a long shot, but not out of the question.
Final Thoughts
In my opinion, the Cardinals' strategy is a calculated risk. They are securing their core players while navigating the uncertainties of the CBA. The Wetherholt extension sets the tone for future negotiations, and I believe we'll see more strategic moves from the Cardinals as they aim to build a championship-caliber roster.
